Risk Intelligence and the Resilient Company

Learned a lot lending an editorial hand here:

MIT Sloan Management Review, June 13, 2023

by Ananya Sheth and Joseph V. Sinfield

Simon Prades

Building the resilience of large, complex enterprises is critical in today’s uncertain and interconnected world. At a time when a container ship grounded in the Suez Canal can bottle up 12% of the world’s trade, or a virus can disrupt the global flow of commodities, components, and talent, a corporation’s ability to quickly adapt in the face of unfolding events is essential to its survival and prosperity.

Business resilience is a dynamic property that is retrospectively measured by the stability and longevity of corporate value across changing contexts. In real time, it manifests in an enterprise’s timely adaptation to both immediate and gradual changes in the business environment.

Our work, which employs a complex adaptive systems view of businesses, shows that resilience derives from three fundamental adaptive capacities: sensing and monitoring, to recognize emerging changes in the business environment; business model portfolio development, to build and test capabilities across operating contexts; and fundamental capability development, to drive growth with longevity and avoid corporate stall. Moreover, each of these capacities hinges on the development of a capability for risk intelligence.

We define risk intelligence as the honed ability to rigorously interpret risks and the consequences or opportunities they pose for a company. It allows leaders to see through environmental complexity and systematically identify, categorize, and interpret risks. This enables them to look beyond known risk factors and intentionally explore yet-to-be-known risks, thereby embracing rather than avoiding uncertainty. Importantly, risk intelligence brings recognition that individual risks or the forms in which they manifest matter far less than the often-shared consequences they have on a company’s value exchange system — that is, the manner in which it manages, identifies, creates, conveys, delivers, captures, protects, and sustains value. And finally, it provides leaders with a network view of risks that enables more effective allocation of risk mitigation resources by illuminating not just the direct consequences of risks but the manner in which they could cascade across the company’s value exchange system. In this article, we break down risk intelligence into actionable elements that leaders can pursue to help toughen their organizations for the long term. Read the rest here.

Environmental Risks Go Far Beyond Climate Change

Learned a lot lending an editorial hand here:

Boston Consulting Group, November 9, 2022

by James Tilbury, Adrien Portafaix, Rebecca Russell, and Fabien Hassan

Just as investors and other stakeholders now expect companies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, soon companies will be expected to report and act on a much broader range of nature-related risks. These risks encompass a host of environmental and ecological impacts connected to $44 trillion in economic value generation, or nearly half of the total global GDP, according to the World Economic Forum. Nature-related emergencies—from natural disasters to the extinction of a growing number of plant and animal species—will be business emergencies, too. That is why companies must plan for the coming nature transition now.

What Are Nature-Related Risks?

Managing and mitigating nature-related risks will require a much wider lens than most companies have adopted to date. There are nine planetary boundaries that span our world—the land, sea, and atmosphere—and the life that it supports. Planetary boundaries are the boundaries that humans must stay within to maintain a stable environment and decrease the risk of irreversible environmental change.

The planetary boundary that many are familiar with is climate change, but it is important to note that climate change is one of nine, with the others being biosphere integrity, land-system change, novel entities (such as toxic substances), freshwater change, stratospheric ozone depletion, atmospheric aerosol loading, ocean acidification, and biochemical flows. 

It is only when all nine planet boundaries are taken together, that companies can begin to evaluate their exposure to nature-related risks. To do that effectively, business leaders will need to adopt a mindset of “double materiality”—that is, they will need to think through how business activities may impact each of the boundaries and, as crucially, how each of the boundaries may impact business performance.

Although some companies have greater exposure to environmental and ecological degradation and collapse than others, the leaders of all companies need to adopt a more comprehensive approach to nature-related risks. As with climate change, customers, employees, and governments will demand it. In addition, investors will require it, especially large investors with diverse portfolios that are particularly vulnerable to the systemic threats arising from natural disasters and ecosystem collapse. Read the rest here.