GCC economies must plot their way to $1 trillion in non-oil exports

Learned a lot lending an editorial hand here:

Gulf News, December 9, 2024

by Rasheed Eltayeb, Chadi Moujaes, Paul Saber, and Sohaib Dar



GCC governments are making progress in reducing their reliance on oil revenues and building an export base of high-value-added goods and services. To accelerate the shift away from oil exports to non-commoditized goods and services, GCC countries can expand their industrial base beyond petrochemicals, support high productivity sectors, and enter competitive markets.

Exports of non-oil goods have grown by a compound annual growth rate of 2% over the past ten years. The World Bank’s latest Gulf Economic Update estimates that GCC non-oil GDP growth reached 3.9% in 2023, while oil-generated revenues contracted by the same percentage.

With the correct measures, we estimate that GCC countries could accelerate this growth and increase total 2022 non-oil exports worth $202 billion to $1 trillion annually by 2030. Our $1 trillion figure comes from: past export growth, GCC countries’ revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in key export sectors (which means they sell abroad significant amounts from that sector), and extrapolating top quartile export growth manifested by global benchmarks.

To capture this prize, GCC policymakers can take three sets of actions. (Read the rest here.)